- Experts: Inflation Looms
By Abiola Olawale
Global oil prices have soared to $78.50 per barrel, a development which has surpassed Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel.
This unexpected rise, triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, will now be financially beneficial to Nigeria and other oil producing countries whose budgets were tied to oil sales/global prices.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged on Friday, fueled by supply disruptions in the Middle East.
The oil price jump at the weekend was the fastest one-day jump in three years, with Brent Crude, Nigeria’s benchmark, peaking intra-day near $78.50/barrel or about 14 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), US benchmark, surged to around $77/barrel.
For Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, this price spike could bolster federal revenues, providing a cushion for the Federal government to fund critical infrastructure and social programs outlined in the 2025 budget.
There are indications that Nigeria could rake in billions in revenue if prices hold above the benchmark through mid-2025.
However, the development isn’t without risks. According to experts, surging oil prices could worsen Nigeria’s inflation, already revolving around 33.2% as of April 2025, and fuel further debates over the reintroduction of fuel subsidies, which the government phased out in 2023.
The New Diplomat reports that the increase in oil price came after Israel carried out airstrikes against Iran and the Middle Eastern country retaliated.
Recall that Iran unleashed a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel on June 13, 2025, in retaliation for Israel’s strikes on its nuclear facilities and military leadership.
Israel had earlier launched an Operation Rising Lion which targeted Iran’s nuclear program, including the Natanz enrichment facility, and killed key figures like Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), along with several nuclear scientists.
