If Donald Trump wins the presidential election this November, U.S. trade policy could become more protectionist with a focus on policies aimed at protecting jobs and industries at home.
Under the trade agenda, domestic manufacturing and reducing trade imbalances will be prioritized. This includes imposing a blanket 10% tariff on all imports and deprioritizing trade pacts, as the 16-page Republican Party platform outlines. As a result, many of the country’s largest trade partners face potential economic risk, given their dependence on U.S. trade.
This graphic shows the countries most exposed to potential trade policy shifts under a Trump presidency, based on data from The Economist.
Methodology
The Economist created the Trump Risk Index, which assesses the exposure and vulnerability of America’s 70 largest trading partners to potential policy changes. It was broken down into three sub-categories: trade, immigration, and security.
For the trade sub-index, each country was given a score based on six trade indicators: bilateral trade balance, trend in bilateral trade, current-account balance, sensitive exports to the U.S., reliance on the U.S. in goods and trade, and free-trade agreements with America.
Question Marks for Key Trading Partners
Below, we show the top 10 countries with the highest trade exposure if Trump returns to office:
| Rank | Country | Trump Trade Risk Score (0 = least exposure, 100 = most exposure) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mexico |
100 |
| 2 |  China |
76.7 |
| 3 |  Canada |
70.4 |
| 4 |  Vietnam |
64.4 |
| 5 |  Germany |
55.5 |
| 6 |  Japan |
53.8 |
| 7 |  Taiwan |
41.3 |
| 8 |  India |
37.2 |
| 9 |  Ireland |
37.2 |
| 10 |  South Korea |
36.5 |
Mexico, the largest exporter to America, ranks first, driven by its $152 billion trade surplus.
As supply chains came closer to home, Mexico’s trade surplus has jumped nearly 40% since 2020. Moreover, significant volumes of exports are automotives and other sensitive exports like aluminium and steel.
Today, Mexico, Canada and the U.S. operate under the USMCA trade agreement, which eliminates tariffs for goods meeting the treaty’s provisions. Under a Trump presidency, this could ultimately be dissolved when it comes up for renegotiation in 2026.
With the biggest trade surplus across all U.S. trading partners, China also faces significant risk. If re-elected, Trump plans to impose a 60% tariff or more on goods imported from China.
While President Biden has taken a more selective approach to Chinese exports, including a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 50% levy on semiconductor chips by 2025, Trump’s policies would be more wide-ranging. For instance, Biden’s policies affect about $18 billion in Chinese goods, but Trump’s would impact roughly $427 billion in imports.
As we can see, both Vietnam and India also rank highly in exposure due to their increasing role in U.S. trade. America stands as Vietnam’s largest export market and India’s biggest trading partner. Additionally, both countries have major trade surpluses with the U.S., which presents one of the greatest risks to future economic relations.
Source: Visual Capitalist
