By Charles Kennedy
The oil-price rally continued in full force on Monday, with Brent crude closing in on $95 per barrel in early afternoon trading, and some crude grades around the world topping $100.
At 12:23 p.m. ET on Monday, Brent crude was trading at $94.53, while WTI was trading at $91.81.
Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Nigerian Qua Iboe crude rallied past $100 per barrel on Monday, while Malaysian Tapis crude had already surpassed that mark last week, citing Swedish bank SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop as saying in a report that “Saudi Arabia and Russia are in solid control of the oil market”.
Oil is now at its highest price this year, with investors banking on tight supply and excess demand in the final quarter of the year as a result of production cut extensions by both Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two largest producers in OPEC+.
The Swedish bank analyst also predicted that Brent would rise above $100 because a rally to that point would require nothing more than “noise”.
Schieldrop said dated Brent is highly likely to move above $100 as “only noise is needed to bring it above.” Swiss bank UBS sees Brent futures reaching triple digits.
Swiss UBS sees Brent trading in the $90-$100 range, targeting $95 at year-end, while Standard Chartered analysts forecast $93 per barrel, but are not ruling out a Q4 rise above $100.
CitiGroup cautioned on Monday that while geopolitics could move prices past $100 in the short-term, “$90 prices look unsustainable” and a withdrawal from the rally is expected as supply builds. Citi noted that non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day this year and another 1 million bpd in 2024, with the U.S. set to add 900,000 bpd this year and 400,000 bpd next year, Bloomberg reports.
NB: Charles Kennedy wrote this article for Oilprice.com
