Ondo governorship polls holds in the next couples of days. Our correspondent David Babafemi reports the intrigues and inter-play of forces characterising the battle for votes.
This development is premised on the recent calls for the postponement of the election which appear to be gaining ground following last Wednesday’s declaration by the Court of Appeal Panel in Abuja which reserved its ruling on the matter.As candidates square up for battle in the Ondo State governorship election in the next five days, there is still uncertainty as to whether the polls will hold or not.
Besides, the uncertainty is also predicated on the seeming inaction by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, in the conduct of recent elections which had been inconclusive.
The appeal before the Appeal Court in Abuja was filed by the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Mr. Eyitayo Jegede (SAN), challenging his replacement with Jimoh Ibrahim who belongs to a rival faction of the same PDP.
Acting on the orders made by Justice Okon Abang of the Federal High Court in Abuja on June 29 and October 14, 2016, the INEC had dropped Jegede who belongs to the Ahmed Makarfi-led faction and replaced him with Ibrahim as the party’s flag bearer of the party in the November 26 election in the state.
Ibrahim belongs to another faction of the PDP led by Ali Modu Sheriff.
Barely 10 days to the polls, The Justice Ibrahim Saulawa-led new appeal panel allowed Jegede’s counsel, Chief Wole Olanipekun (SAN), to adopt his client’s appellant’s brief, despite stiff opposition by the counsel for the first to nineth respondents in the case, Mr. Ben Nwofor (SAN).
With few days to the polls, there is apprehension within the political circle in the state, especially the PDP, as to who is going to be the actual candidate in the election.
Unlike in 2012 when the election was a three-horse race between then incumbent Segun Mimiko of the Labour Party, Olusola Oke of the PDP and Rotimi Akeredolu of the Action Congress, this time around, because of the pall of uncertainty in many of the parties, anything can just happen.
However, political observers have identified four critical factors that may determine where the pendulum of victory will swing if the election eventually holds.
These are the Mimiko factor, the Tinubu factor, the Afenifere factor, and the crisis within all the parties. However, the issues of finance, popularity of the candidate and zoning will also play significant roles.
Mimiko Factor
As the outgoing governor, he will use everything in his power to ensure the emergence of his candidate – Jegede. Most of the governors usually handpick their successors.
Mimiko, singlehanded, made sure that Jegede emerged the party’s candidate in a first-ditch effort to make him governor by next year. He has thus deployed all his resources, material, financial to back him.
When the candidacy ran into a hitch with the INEC, Mimiko had rushed to President Muhammadu Buhari for it to be sorted out. It is apparently due to his effort that the Court of Appeal is hearing the appeal against Ibrahim after an initial hesitation.
Authoritative sources said Mimiko had toyed with the idea of returning to the Labour Party when it appeared that the PDP road had been blocked by the Modu Sheriff faction.
Mimiko was said to have promised some leaders in the state that by the time he would be stepping out, he would hand over to someone from Akure axis as that area is yet to present the governor of the state since its creation in 1976.
Tinubu Factor
The Tinubu factor is another critical factor in the race to the Alagbaka House. For Tinubu, this is payback time for Mimiko who used him to get to the government house through the Appeal Court only to dump him afterwards.
Thus Tinubu had backed Olusegun Abrahams in the race but he himself was stabbed in the back in the APC primaries which led to the loss of his candidate.
With the strong backing Tinubu enjoys in the South West states, he plays an important role in Saturday’s election especially with the support of the governors.
While Abraham is in court battling Akeredolu over the ticket, the backing is said to have shifted to Olusola Oke who also lost in the APC primaries but quickly defected to the Alliance for Democracy (AD), Tinubu’s former party and snatched the party’s ticket.
Afenifere Factor
This is where the rancour between the Afenifere and Tinubu is playing itself out.
Because of the cold shoulders that Tinubu is experiencing at the moment with some APC leaders, there are talks of mediation in order to resolve the crisis. If this pays off, then Oke might just be the beneficiary.
The crisis in the parties.
At the moment, with the exception of the Social Democratic Party,SDP, all the other major parties are crisis-ridden which might just be the undoing of their candidates come Saturday.
With this development, the outcome of the election and the court verdicts might just be anybody’s game.
The major aspirants in their strengths and weaknesses.
Ondo State has 18 local governments divided into the three senatorial zones
ONDO CENTRAL
Akure South, Akure North, Ondo East, Ondo West, Idanre, Ifedore.
ONDO SOUTH
Ileoluji/Okeigbo, Odigbo, Ilaje, Ese-Odo, Okitipupa, Irele.
ONDO NORTH
Akoko North East, Akoko South West, Akoko North West, Akoko South East, Ose, Owo.
Eyitayo Jegede, PDP
He is from Akure south, in the Central Senatorial District. A Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Jegede is the immediate past attorney general and commissioner for justice in Ondo State, a position he resigned to join the guber race. He belongs to the Ahmed Makarfi faction of the PDP. He is perhaps the most experienced politician of the lot.
Being the anointed candidate of Governor Mimiko, it was not difficult for him to defeat his rival, Mr. Saka Lawal at the primary election held in August.
His chances at the election are bright despite the fact that he hails from the same senatorial district with Mimiko. He is a product of agitation. Since the creation of Ondo State in 1976, Akure has not produced a civilian governor.
Outgoing Mimiko has assured the people that he would assist them in realizing their dream. All the six councils in the senatorial zone make up what is called Akure division except ondo East and West. With this he is sure of garnering at least 95 percent of votes in the zone while Mimiko will secure Ondo East and West for him. He may not have an inroad in the Akoko and Ilaje areas of the state.
Rotimi Akeredolu, APC
He will still have to contend with the barrage of protests which followed his emergence on September 3. Akeredolu, a SAN, will be contesting for the second time as a candidate. He was the candidate of ACN during 2012 governorship election in which he was placed third after Governor Mimiko and Olusola Oke, the then PDP candidate.
APC is strong in the northern zone of the state, especially Akoko which has about 30 percent of total votes of the state. A quick resolution of the post-primary crisis will in no small way assist him to have a better outing than that of 2012. He is equally exploiting the south to pick his running mate as part of the strategy to garner votes from the area.
The central which already has a candidate in the person of Jegede may not likely be prepared to trade off the mandate.
Jimoh Ibrahim, PDP
The emergence of Jimoh Ibrahim, the factional candidate of Ali Modu Sheriff, is meant to play a spoiler role against mimiko. He has been a thorn in the flesh of the administration since the outgoing governor decamped to the PDP in 2014 shortly before the presidential election. Ibrahim had participated in all governorship elections in the state with his first foray on the ticket of All Progressives Party, APP, in 2003 when he lost woefully.
He is still battling for recognition of his candidacy since his election, which took place in Ibadan, was initially not recognised by INEC but was later compelled by a court order. The candidacy is still a subject of litigation few days to the polls. A businessman, he cannot be said to have any base in the three senatorial districts.
Dr. Olu Agunloye, SDP
He had attempted to clinch the governorship ticket twice in the ACN 2012, and later crossed to PDP. When it was clear to him that he was not in the reckoning in the PDP, he ran to the SDP.
His only assurance is that if the crises in the PDP and APC remain unresolved till the election date, he may become the favoured choice of Ondo voters. This is because he has little influence, backing and support in the state on account of his lean financial muscle.
Olusola Oke
Following the defection of Olusola Oke to the Alliance For Democracy (AD) after failing to secure the nomination of the All Progressives Congress, there are indications that history might just be repeated.
Recall that in 2007, Mr. Mimiko left the PDP for the then unpopular LP to contest against the incumbent, Olusegun Agagu, and emerged winner, even though he only assumed office more than a year later through the courts.
This breaking of the bipolarization of the state’s politics by Mimiko with his Labour Party (LP) appears to be the source of optimism Mr. Oke’s supporters. Will history be repeating itself?
